人生何其短,“糊涂”也是一种境界life is short,being silly is also a realm

We all, at one time or another, have pretended to be a rock star, singing and dancing along to our favorite song.
我们每个人,在不同时期,都曾经像一个摇滚歌星那样,伴着我们最爱的那首歌又唱又跳。

Most of us have done this in the privacy of our own room when we were kids and as adults, in the privacy of our homes.
很多人在小时候,甚至是已长大成人,都曾在我们自己房间和家里这样的隐秘空间里这样做过。

Me? I love to do that when I drive! I turn on the radio, find a song that I can sing along too and pretty soon my arms are in the air and I am moving along to the rhythm. Most of the time, I do this on my way to work.
我呢?我喜欢在开车的时候这样!打开收音机,找一首会唱的歌,很快我就会张开双臂,随着节奏起舞。大部分时候,我在上班的路上这么做。

Yes, that is true. I will be in my nice work clothes, jamming while driving or stopped at a traffic light. I get weird looks from some people and others laugh.
是的,没错。穿着漂亮的工作服的我,尤其在堵车和遇到交通灯时,便会招来别人异样的眼神,或者笑我。

Personally, I love to get lost in the rhythm of a song which leads me to share with you the importance of being silly!
对我个人而言,我喜欢沉浸在一首歌的节奏中,由此我愿和你们分享:为人糊涂贵在何处。

The definition for the word silly, according to the dictionary is: stupid, foolish and nonsensical. I know many people do not want to look foolish. So they walk around all serious, which in all honesty, is foolish!
糊涂一词在字典中的定义是:愚蠢的,傻,荒谬的。我知道很多人都不想被人看作愚笨。所以他们在生活中始终一脸严肃,而这在本质上才是真正的愚笨。

No one is perfect, I repeat: no one is perfect. I don’t care how educated, how thin, how beautiful, how simple, how frugal, how rich, and so on… No one is perfect! So why pretend to be something you are not?
人无完人,我重申一次:没有人是完美的。我不在乎一个人学识多深,身材多好,外表多美,思想多浅薄,生活多俭朴,多富有,等等……人无完人!那么,为什么要伪装成我们实际上本不是的呢?

Life is so short…You never know when this beautiful journey will be over, so why waste a single second on being so full of rigidity? Here is a quote by Souza, that I think says it all and is a great recipe for life:
人生何其短暂……你不会知道这美好的征程何时会结束,那么,为什么要浪费一分一秒,让自己变得棱角分明?这里引用索萨的话,我觉得她一语中的,是人生的一大秘方。

“Dance as though no one is watching you,
Love as though you have never been hurt before,
Sing as though no one can hear you,
Live as though heaven is on earth.”
跳舞吧,即使没有人欣赏,
去爱吧,就当从没受过伤害,
唱歌吧,好像没有人在倾听一样,
好好生活,就像今天是最后一天一样。

When we were kids, we had no idea of what limitations were and we had no care in the world so we could do things without worrying about how we appeared to others. However, as we grew up, we lost that childlike innocence.
当我们还是孩子,我们天不怕,地不怕,无忧无虑,所以我们可以不在乎自己再别人眼中的形象去做事情。然而,当我们长大,我们失去了那种天真烂漫。

So don’t lose the child that still lives within you. The next time you feel down, go turn on your favorite song, and sing and dance along like there is no tomorrow.
所以,不要丢失你心中那个小孩。下次你感到沮丧时,去打开你最爱的那首歌吧,随之歌唱起舞,就像今天是生命中的最后一天一样。

Or watch something that makes you laugh. Laughter is the best medicine to whatever ails you and nothing is better than laughing so hard that your tummy hurts.
或者看点能让你笑的东西。笑声是除去任何烦恼良方,没有什么比笑到肚子疼更好的事了。

Trust me, you will feel a whole lot better, and who doesn’t want to feel good?
相信我,你会好受很多,谁又不想让自己好受呢?

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Care and concern is a universally true love 牵挂是人世间最真的情

How nice it is to be cared about as it is the real love among people.
真好,那被人牵挂的感觉很妙。牵挂,是人间至真的情,至真的爱。

If you are cared and concerned about and you are concerned about someone, you just feel you are in the seventh heaven.
如果有人牵挂你,如果你也牵挂别人,你就会是最幸福的人。

●  Caring about someone is that you keep thinking about him or her and that you miss him or her in the deep recesses of your heart every now and then, day in and day out.
牵挂一个人,是对他的深深惦记,是分分秒秒的思念,是时时刻刻的祝福,是日日夜夜的期盼。

●  I care about someone who is highly treasured in your heart as if your lipstick or even your Petit Gris Snail Cream, the former adding luster to your look and your pleasure, and the latter being an effective remover of remedy of your facial stain and a killer of your occasional acne which finds nowhere to hide as well as a secret weapon to keep your 10 years younger than your peers, representing all of your daily excellent life elements.
牵挂一个人,心中视如珍宝,犹如你珍视你的口红,更甚是你的法国PG霜,口红可以点缀你的气色,增加愉悦感。而法国PG霜却是你偶尔冒出的痘痘的克星,是让你色斑无所遁形的武器,是使你比同龄人年轻十岁的秘密,是你每天精致优雅生活的全部。

Anything on your mind and persons cared about in your dream represent a good time in your life.
心中有牵挂的东西,梦中有牵挂人的身影,这就是美好的时光。

● Caring about someone is a pent-up feeling and a ceaseless affection. Thinking of something always helps you associate it with its owner.
牵挂一个人,那是放不下的情怀,剪不断的情思。牵挂一件物品,却可以睹物思人。

Your care about others adds warmth to the affection, happiness to friendship and love sickness to the sweet love.
有了牵挂,亲情就多了一份温馨;有了牵挂,友情就多了一种幸福;有了牵挂,爱情就多了一缕相思。

Your care about others stands for sweet memories of happiness and being cared about is the most wonderful happiness in the world.
牵挂别人是甜蜜的幸福,被人牵挂则是世上最美妙的幸福。

Greetings from friends and family will never leave you alone. The sincere wishes from friends double your confidence. Your heat is brimming with ample sunshine with the affection from the loved ones.
来自亲友的问候,让你从不孤单。朋友的真诚祝福,让你信心倍增。爱人的思念,让你的心灵充满阳光。

Nothing is better than being cared about. All people are longing for the feeling of being cared about and caring about others. The ones you care about and the ones who care about you are equally worthy of being treasured.  
有人牵挂真好,所有人都在寻找,那被人牵挂和牵挂别人的感觉。你牵挂的人值得你珍惜,牵挂你的人你要懂得珍惜。

Being cared about is something like a cup of nectar running over with strong feelings, intoxicating so many people and brings the dreams of many people into reality.
有人牵挂真好,那是一杯浓郁的感情琼浆,醉了多少人的心,圆了多少人的梦。

The care from your loved ones is the driving force to cheer you on and is your entrepreneurial ladder as well as the harbor of soul. With this very care, your life is no longer pale and hopeless as it used to be, and you may feel cool even in the scorching summer heat and feel warm in the freezing cold winter. This very care you can keep you healthier with brighter smiles on your face.
爱你的人对你的牵挂是你前进的动力,是你创业的阶梯,是你心灵的港湾。有了那份牵挂,你的生命不在苍白,你的生活不在无奈。有了那份牵挂,你会感觉夏天不在炎热,冬季不在寒冷。有了那份牵挂,你的身体更健康,你的笑容更灿烂。

Your loved ones care about you while the ones you care about are remembered in your heart all along as you care about everything on mind. Try to translate this strong emotion into the cherished care and concern as the hope of your soul. Care and concern is the dialog between heart and heart, the call and response from the soul!
爱你的人牵挂着你,你牵挂着你爱的人,他的心中时时记得你,你也会在意他的一切。让你们的情感在牵挂中沉淀,让你们的心灵有所寄托。牵挂,是心灵的对话,是心灵的呼唤,是心灵的回应!

Care and concern is a most beautiful emotion in the world, so who on earth does not cherish and own it?
牵挂啊,你是世界上最美好的情感!谁不想拥有你呢?

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A Speical Letter一封特别的信

Dear World:
亲爱的世界:

My son starts school today.
我的儿子今天就要开始上学读书了。

It’s going to be strange and new to him for a while, and I wish you would sort of treat him gently.
一时之间,他会感觉陌生而又新鲜。我希望你能待他温柔一些。

You see, up to now, he’s been king of the roost.
你明白,到现在为止,他一直是家中的小皇帝。

He’s been boss of the backyard.
一直是后院的王者。

I have always been around to repair his wounds, and to soothe his feelings.
我一直在他身旁,忙着为他治疗伤口,哄他开心。

But now-things are going to be different.
但是现在 — 一切都将不同了。

This morning, he’s going to walk down the front steps, wave his hand and start on his great adventure that will probably include wars and tragedy and sorrow.
今天清晨,他就要走下前门的楼梯,冲我挥手,然后开始他的伟大的历险征程,其间或许有争斗、不幸以及伤痛。

To live his life in the world he has to live in will require faith and love and courage.
既然活在这个世上,他就需要信念、爱心和勇气。

So, World, I wish you would sort of take him by his young hand and teach him the things he will have to know.
所以,世界啊,我希望你能够时不时握住他稚嫩的小手,传授他所应当知晓的事情。

●  Teach him-but gently, if you can.
教育他吧–而如果可能的话,温柔一些。

●  Teach him that for every scoundrel there is a hero; that for every crooked politician there is a dedicated leader; that for every enemy there is a friend.
教他知道,每有恶人之地,必有豪杰所在;每有奸诈小人,必有献身义士;每见一敌人,必有一友在侧。

●  Teach him the wonders of books.Give him quiet time to ponder the eternal mystery of birds in the sky, bees in the sun, and flowers on the green hill.
教他感受书本的神奇魅力。给他时间静思大自然中亘古绵传之奥秘:空中的飞鸟,日光里的蜜蜂,青山上的簇簇繁花。

● Teach him it is far more honorable to fail than to cheat.
教他知道,失败远比欺骗更为光荣。

●  Teach him to have faith in his own ideas, even if everyone tells him they are wrong.
教他坚定自我的信念,哪怕人人予以否认。

●  Teach him to sell his brawn and brains to the highest bidder, but never to put a price on his heart and soul.
教他可以最高价付出自己的精力和智慧,但绝不可出卖良心和灵魂。

●  Teach him to close his ears to a howling mob…and to stand and fight if he thinks he’s right.
教他置暴徒的喧嚣于度外……并在自觉正确之时挺身而战。

Teach him gently, World, but don’t coddle him, because only the test of fire makes fine steel.
温柔地教导他吧,世界,但是不要放纵他,因为只有烈火的考验才能炼出真钢。

This is a big order, World, but see what you can do.
这一要求甚高,世界,但是请尽你所能。

He’s such a nice little fellow.
他是一个如此可爱的小家伙。

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富兰克林13种美德

一【节制】食不过饱;饮不过量。
Temperance: Eat not to dullness; drink not to elevation.
梵中心语:(自我约束)
节制。从最根本的人性开始,是马斯诺需求理论的第一层生理需要,食与饮,是人最初级的需求,皮之不存,毛将焉附?把这最初之需,管理到一个满意的分数,让节制之心,在生活中高频中震荡,直至控制之心,使之自然。这就是心学讲究的:生活即是修行,修行既是生活。
二【谨言】言则于人于己有益,不作无益闲聊。
Silence: Speak not but what may benefit others or yourself; avoid trifling conversation.
梵中心语:(正确表达)
谨言。言的目标在益,于人有益,于己有益。在此不是从信用上讲究言语,此处言就是行,强调的是言的价值,不是知无不言,而重点在言必有益。这应是言做为传播方法的终极目标,也就是言必遵从良知。所思所想,要符合良知,则据说所讲,则必有益。心学讲究知行合一,在此处为言行合一,不做无益的闲聊,也就是不做无益之事。
三【秩序】各样东西放在一定地方;做事情有一定时间限制。
Order: Let all your things have their places; let each part of your business have its time.
梵中心语:(自我管理)
秩序。这是自我秩序的管理,心外之物,顺心而行。心在物上,才成事,事始与终在时,所以管理好自己时间,就是给事定了时,给生命加了油。条理的秩序对于社会,是个繁荣发展的安定社会;条理秩序对于个人,是一种轻松自然而不断向时间要效率的生活。在别人看来这是伟大,在自己看来很平凡,因为这仅仅是一个良好的习惯。
四【决断】决定做应该要做的事;决定后坚持到底。
Resolution: Resolve to perform what you ought; perform without fail what you resolve.
梵中心语:(肯定坚持)
决断。良知使然,反复至诚,就能知道,事是不是应该做,这是一种态度。万事万物,无对无错,只要心中无我,自然知事之趋向,未卜先知,要的是勇气,勇气以后,是持之一恒的行动。事起良知,终必恒;执之恒,又因事起良知。本来万物一体,知其然者,必知其所以然。易经中说,恒,利于久住,无咎。决定了是对的,就是已经在行动了,行动之后是坚持,坚持之后必心想事成。
五【俭朴】花钱须于人于己有益,不糟蹋浪费。
Frugality: Make no expense but to do good to others or yourself; i.e.waste nothing.
梵中心语:(合理消费)
俭朴,这是对金钱价值实现的最好诠释,对人对己有益,是金钱付出的标准,这个标准不仅仅只指花与不花,还在于花多少。金钱价值在与内心的良知充分结合,这样金钱才助力致良知,心灵安处是黄金。否则,金钱就成为蒙蔽良知的孽障。糟蹋与浪费,不在一分一厘较高下,只在良知上论高低。
六【勤勉】爱惜时间;时刻做有益之事事;不做不必要的行动。
Industry: Lose no time; be always employ’d in something useful; cut off all unnecessary actions.
梵中心语:(时事管理)
勤勉。命也,时也,爱惜时间,就是爱惜生命,把自己的生命放在所益之处,才能开处红的花,结出硕的果,有益之事,造就价值的一生,无益之事,终生碌碌。知善知恶,为善除恶,良知之下,事必有益。非致良知之事,决绝弃之。时刻做有益之事,在益,也在勤。勤勉之人,爱惜时间,知后必行,良知所处,善益加冕。知善恶之心,深明知行合一,执着是执着,不执着也是执着。只有放的下,才能分的清。不做不必要的行动即为此。
七【致诚】不欺骗人;思想纯洁公正;说话要出于诚意。(真诚之心)
Sincerity: Use no hurtful deceit; think innocently and justly, and, if you speak, speak accordingly.
致诚。思想沌洁公正,王阳明主张,为善去恶,就是诚意上的功夫,诚是心之本体,要恢复心之本体,就要反复致诚,这也是致良知。所以诚,让思想纯洁公正。不欺骗人,包括不欺骗自己。诚意之语,必出自诚意之心,心诚则思正,思正而事达,事达即丰。
八【尽心】不做错事,害人害己;做好自己分内的事,惠我益他。(责任之心)
Justice: Wrong none by doing injuries, or omitting the benefits that are your duty.
正直。伤人之心不可有,伤人即伤己。知善知恶,凭良知做事,当然爱意满满,信心满满。这种尽心,外益他人,可齐家,可治国,可平天下;内惠自己,至诚之心,必做尽心之举,实践自己良知,事事必明,事事应达,诚则成,实现自己,自然益于社会。
九【中庸】不走极端;对人少怀怨恨之心;认识别人对自己伤害的价值。(胸怀宽广)
Moderation: Avoid extreams; forbear resenting injuries so much as you think they deserve.
中庸。人之处中则天地宽广,事之处中则游刃有余,心若处中则万事明。任何的怨恨,都有害良知之光明,如处无我地,站稳中间心,别人对你伤害的道理应是你清醒的开始,而不是你怨恨的开始。让人气奋之事是人之事,非某人某时之事。或换个时间,或换个地点,或换个人,你会发现,伤害与怨恨也许是你的财富。
十【整洁】身体、衣服和住所务必清洁。(良好习惯)
Cleanliness: Tolerate no uncleanliness in body, cloths, or habitation.
整洁。一个良好的秩序,会让心安体灵,形成克守良好秩序的习惯,从自身做起,从日常做起,由简至繁,由近及远。时间久了你就会发现,不仅仅你自己,更主要的是你身边的事,你身边的人,也同你一样,干净利落,秩序井然。一屋不扫,何以扫天下?扫屋始于面,简单可行,激励明显
十一【静心】不因琐事或普通而不可避免的事件而烦恼。(自我调结)
Tranquility: Be not distuibed at trifles, or at accidents common or unavoidable.
静心。烦恼之心,在于思在事上遮蔽了良知,你心中兴明,亦复何求。就怕把功夫用错,不是在良知上反复用心,而有欲望、得失、攀比等等非良知之事上冥思苦想,养贼为子,烦恼不已。此时只要用知善知恶的心,瞬间考量,你会发现,自取烦恼,庸人自扰,十分可笑。
十二【守节】节欲,不伤害身体,不许损他人的安宁或名誉。(自我保护)
Chastity: Rarely use venery but for health or offspring, never to dullness, weakness, or the injury of your own or another’s peace or reputation.
守节。性欲是人本能的需求,如喝酒吃饭,保证能量与营养,适中即为贵。性爱亦是如此,性爱本能,为健康与繁衍后代之外请节制。不损害他人,就是保护自己;保护了自己,也就成全了他人,些处重在守节。节者,制也,如竹子,节之内顺达,节之外非所欲也,确因实难通达。
十三【谦卑】效法耶稣和苏格拉底。(谦自成佛)
Humility: Imitate Jesus and Socrates.
谦卑。这是一种态度,更是处事王道。内心的谦卑,能让胸怀更加宽广,此宽广能容下更多人,更多事,如此一来,遇事不惊,处事分明,因为能容天下人难容之事,在西方是耶稣与苏格拉底,在东方是佛。
此十三美德,在富兰克林22岁就已经罗列出来,并且每天对照这十三条美德考核自己并记录,时时处处,一日三省。其实在心学看来,这就是致良知。就是富兰克林70多岁时,都说自己还有很多不完美的地方,但他已经趋向很完美了。看来这致良知之路,的确很长,王阳明,也是而立之后,才龙场悟道。
致良知,是一个反复至诚的过程。不论古今中外,概莫能外。
这条路如是开启,光明良知,就能通达智慧,能与宇宙万物一体。
我想信,你也许不信,也许认为那离你很远,也许你还没有做好准备,其实你心一动,向良知致去,则就已经开始了。所以请你试试。
孩子心灵纯洁,不知雌雄,婴儿心,所以心学从孩童始,知行合一,应是一个好的开始,所以,让们继续把孩子快乐放到第一位,同孩子一起致良知,给童年一个万岁,是因为我们给了快乐一个万岁!
富蘭克林採取了一個很特別的執行方法:他不是全面地展開13項美德的修練,因為他認為這樣會分散注意力;而是「一次專注一項美德,等到該項美德做到通透,再進行下一項」,而且每天都會自省一天的所作所為,並將結果記在小冊子裡
有趣的是,富蘭克林一開始列出來的美德是12項,經一位朋友好心地舉出幾個實例,提醒他能言善道、口才便給的模樣,會給人傲慢的印象,他便把「謙虛」放在最後一項,還多給自己立了一條戒規:克制一切和別人針鋒相對的言論,也禁止自己說話時流露武斷的語氣,甚至嚴格要求自己絕對不能以「確定」的口吻發表看法,而是以「不確定」的語氣表達。像是以「我的理解是、我認為、我想」取代「這是肯定的、無疑地」。
每當認為別人的主張有誤時,他也不會急於挑錯,而是在回話時說,「在某種情況下,你的見解可能是對的。但是在目前看來,我覺得情況似乎(或好像)有所不同。」他也認為,驕傲是性情中最難控制的,「哪怕是我自以為已經徹底戰勝了驕傲,我也許又為自己的謙卑而居功自傲了。」
他在《富蘭克林自傳》(The Autobiography of Benjamin Franklin)中寫道,「讓我的子孫後代得知,他們的這位先輩(富蘭克林)一生福氣綿延,除了上天的恩寵,靠的就是這點小小的本領(指他將13項美德化為習慣)。」
富蘭克林將健康歸功於「節制」這項美德;能夠學有專精與成功致富是因為「勤奮」與「儉省」;而受美國委任成為革命領導者的光榮則是得益於「誠信」與「正義」;這13項美德的交互影響,更讓他可以心情平和、談笑風生,擁有好人緣。1790年,富蘭克林的喪禮上,送葬民眾多達兩萬多人。
富兰克林在他的自传里写道:“我的目的是养成所有美德的习惯”。“最好还是在一个时期内集中精力掌握其中的一种美德。当我掌握了一种美德后,接着就开始注意另外一种,这样下去,直到我掌握了十三种为止。因为先获得的一些美德可以便利其他美德的培养”。
富兰克林的十三种品德是:
一、节制:食不过饱,酒不过量。
⑴Temperance: Eat not too dullness; drink not too elevation.
二、缄默:避免空谈,言必对己或对人有益。
⑵Silence: Speak not but what may benefit others or yourself; avoid trifling conversation.
三、秩序:放东西的地方,做事情的时间要心中有数。
⑶Order: Let all your things have their places; let each part of your business have its time.
四、决心:该做的一定要做,做就要做好。
⑷Resolution: Resolve to perform what you ought; perform without fail what you resolve.
五、节俭:对人或对己有益才可用钱,决不浪费。
⑸Frugality: Make no expense but to do good to others or yourself; i.e.,waste nothing.
六、勤奋:珍惜光阴,做有益之事,避无谓之举。
⑹Industry: Lose no time; be always employ’d in something useful; cut off all unnecessary actions.
七、真诚:不欺骗,有良知,为人厚道,说话实在。
⑺Sincerity: Use no hurtful deceit; think innocently and justly,and,if you speak,speak accordingly
八、正义:不做不利于人的事,不逃避自己的义务。
⑻Justice: Wrong none by doing injuries,or omitting the benefits that are your duty.
九、中庸:避免走极端,容忍别人给你的伤害,认为是你应该承受之事。
⑼Moderation: Avoid extreams; forbear resenting injuries so much as you think they deserve.
十、整洁:保持身体、衣服和住所的整洁。
⑽Cleanliness: Tolerate no uncleanliness in body,cloaths,or habitation
十一、冷静:不因小事,寻常之事,不可避免之事而慌乱。
⑾Tranquility: Be not distuibed at trifles,or at accidents common or unavoidable.
十二、节欲:少行房事,除非考虑到身体健康或者延续子嗣;不要房事过度,伤害身体或者损害自己或他人的安宁与名誉。
⑿Chastity: Rarely use venery but for health or offspring,never to dulness,weakness,or the injury of your own or another’s peace or reputation.
十三、谦逊:效法耶稣和苏格拉底。
⒀Humility: Imitate Jesus and Socrates
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当药物不管用When the drugs don’t work

有些人认为达尔文的进化论“仅仅是个理论”,那让他们把这个说给每年因耐药性感染而死亡的70万人的亲朋好友听吧。对抗菌素和抗疟药等抗微生物药物的耐受,就是适者生存的表现。不幸的是,适应微生物就意味着不适应人类。药物耐受不仅是最鲜活地体现进化真实发生的例证之一,也是给人类带来最大直接损失的一个案例。而且情况还在不断恶化。按照目前的趋势发展下去,到2050年, 此类死亡人数可能从70万增加到一千万。
SOME people describe Darwinian evolution as “only a theory”. Try explaining that to the friends and relatives of the 700,000 people killed each year by drug-resistant infections. Resistance to antimicrobial medicines, such as antibiotics and antimalarials, is caused by the survival of the fittest. Unfortunately, fit microbes mean unfit human beings. Drug-resistance is not only one of the clearest examples of evolution in action, it is also the one with the biggest immediate human cost. And it is getting worse. Stretching today’s trends out to 2050, the 700,000 deaths could reach 10m.

有些愤世嫉俗的人认为他们以前就听过这样的论调,那也情有可原。自从上世纪40年代末抗生素开始大量使用时起,人们就始终为耐药性而烦恼。他们认为这可能会导致细菌性疾病再度流行,这一结论已被证实是错误的,以后也不会正确。因为19世纪常见的感染性疾病如肺结核和霍乱等的减少是由于住房条件的改善、排水设施的建设以及清洁的供水,而不是青霉素的功劳。
Cynics might be forgiven for thinking that they have heard this argument before. People have fretted about resistance since antibiotics began being used in large quantities during the late 1940s. Their conclusion that bacterial diseases might again become epidemic as a result has proved false and will remain so. That is because the decline of common 19th-century infections such as tuberculosis and cholera was thanks to better housing, drains and clean water, not penicillin.

真正的威胁更不易察觉,却非常严重。公共卫生方面的进步(如维多利亚时代的人们发起的那些)最终将会降低印度的肺结核发病率,但这很难弥补每年六万名新生儿因耐药性感染而致死的损失。哪里有地方性传染病,哪里就有对其疗法的耐受。这即便在富裕世界也不例外。具有耐药性的微生物,如耐药的金黄色葡萄球菌等增加了术后感染的风险。或许在未来的某一天,去做那些可做可不做的手术将是不明智的选择;而用免疫抑制来阻止排异反应的器官移植则危险到了极点。想象一下,热带地区的每个人都再次易患疟疾,每一次针刺都可能引发致命感染。我们要担忧的是旧病而非新疾。
The real danger is more subtle—but grave nonetheless. The fact that improvements in public health like those the Victorians pioneered should eventually drive down tuberculosis rates in India hardly makes up for the loss of 60,000 newborn children every year to drug-resistant infections. Wherever there is endemic infection, there is resistance to its treatment. This is true in the rich world, too. Drug-resistant versions of organisms such as Staphylococcus aureus are increasing the risk of post-operative infection. The day could come when elective surgery is unwise and organ transplants, which stop rejection with immunosuppression, are downright dangerous. Imagine that everyone in the tropics was vulnerable once again to malaria and that every pin prick could lead to a fatal infection. It is old diseases, not new ones, that need to be feared.

常见失误Common failings

耐药性的蔓延是“公地悲剧”的例子之一;负责的人看不到造成的损失。你养牛吗?给它们的饲料里加点抗生素促进生长,不断增强的耐药性造成的损失却由全社会承担。你嗓子痛吗?吃点抗生素吧,以防是细菌性的。就算是病毒性的,吃药治不了,那也没坏处——除了会害了以后染上耐药性传染病的人。
The spread of resistance is an example of the tragedy of the commons; the costs of what is being lost are not seen by the people who are responsible. You keep cattle? Add antibiotics to their feed to enhance growth. The cost in terms of increased resistance is borne by society as a whole. You have a sore throat? Take antibiotics in case it is bacterial. If it is viral, and hence untreatable by drugs, no harm done—except to someone else who later catches a resistant infection.

对做正确的事缺乏激励,这一点很难纠正。在有的医疗保健体系中,医生开处方会有奖励。症状消除后,病人如果疏忽了而没有吃完整个疗程的药,也不会有直接的损害,但是最耐药的细菌会存活下来。因为很多人错误地相信是人类而非细菌产生了耐药性,他们并未意识到自己做错了。
The lack of an incentive to do the right thing is hard to correct. In some health-care systems, doctors are rewarded for writing prescriptions. Patients suffer no immediate harm when they neglect to complete drug courses after their symptoms have cleared up, leaving the most drug-resistant bugs alive. Because many people mistakenly believe that human beings, not bacteria, develop resistance, they do not realise that they are doing anything wrong.

如果行为不容易改变,那么能造出新药来吗?事与愿违的是,市场在这里也失灵了。医生们想要把最好的药留到最后,用来对付耐受其他所有药物的最顽固病例。给流鼻涕的患者开昂贵的专利药毫无意义,因为几块钱的药也能奏效。
If you cannot easily change behaviour, can you create new drugs instead? Perversely, the market fails here, too. Doctors want to save the best drugs for the hardest cases that are resistant to everything else. It makes no sense to prescribe an expensive patented medicine for the sniffles when something that costs cents will do the job.

把新药留给紧急情况的公共政策是合情合理的。但是这样一来销量很低,降低了制药公司的研发积极性。青蒿素是一种治疗疟疾的药物,替代了寄生虫已能耐受的早期疗法,但现在自身也面临着耐药性的问题。青蒿素并不是由西方医药公司带给世人的,而是中国学术界的成果。
Reserving new drugs for emergencies is sensible public policy. But it keeps sales low, and therefore discourages drug firms from research and development. Artemisinin, a malaria treatment which has replaced earlier therapies to which the parasite became resistant—and which now faces resistance problems itself—was brought to the world not by a Western pharmaceutical company, but by Chinese academics.

给药裹上糖衣Sugar the pill

因为没有一种办法能够独立解决耐药性的问题,我们必须多管齐下。首先是减少用量。农业部门可以禁止对农场动物使用抗生素促进生长的做法,欧盟已经这样做了。如果各国政府都同意携手推进这类法规就再好不过。无论对人还是对动物,政策都应当是多接种疫苗,在感染发生之前加以预防。这对资金紧张的医疗系统应该有吸引力,因为预防比治疗便宜。按照同样的逻辑,医院和其他耐药细菌的孳生地应当改善卫生条件以防止感染。政府要教育民众,告知抗生素的工作原理,以及怎样做有助于阻止耐药性的蔓延。这类政策无法逆转“公地悲剧”,但可以让悲剧的程度大大降低。
Because antimicrobial resistance has no single solution, it must be fought on many fronts. Start with consumption. The use of antibiotics to accelerate growth in farm animals can be banned by agriculture ministries, as it has in the European Union. All the better if governments jointly agree to enforce such rules widely. In both people and animals, policy should be to vaccinate more so as to stop infections before they start. That should appeal to cash-strapped health systems, because prophylaxis is cheaper than treatment. By the same logic, hospitals and other breeding grounds for resistant bugs should prevent infections by practising better hygiene. Governments should educate the public about how antibiotics work and how they can help halt the spread of resistance. Such policies cannot reverse the tragedy of the commons, but they can make it a lot less tragic.

政策也可以加强对创新的激励。在一月发布的一项宣言中,85家医药公司和诊断公司宣誓抵御耐药性。附属细则表明这一宣言在某种程度上也是在呼吁资助。但它也承认需要“新的商业模式”,将报酬和销售分隔开来以鼓励创新。

Policy can also sharpen the incentives to innovate. In a declaration in January, 85 pharmaceutical and diagnostic companies pledged to act against drug resistance. The small print reveals that the declaration is, in part, a plea for money. But it also recognises the need for “new commercial models” to encourage innovation by decoupling payments from sales.

本周,这一想法在英国政府和医疗慈善组织惠康基金会(the Wellcome Trust)委托撰写的一系列报告的最后一篇中有所提及。报告作者——经济学家吉姆·奥尼尔( Jim O’Neill)提出了很多建议,其中之一是,公司若能将新抗生素培育到实际可用,则向其支付他称之为“市场进入奖励”的报酬。此举可保证在销售收入之外,新药还会获得8亿美元至13亿美元的奖金。
That thought is taken up this week in the last of a series of reports commissioned by the British government and the Wellcome Trust, a medical charity. Among the many recommendations from its author, Jim O’Neill, an economist, is the payment of what he calls “market-entry rewards” to firms that shepherd new antibiotics to the point of usability. This would guarantee prizes of $800m-1.3 billion for new drugs, on top of revenues from sales.

奥尼尔的另一条建议是扩充一项由英国和中国政府共同设立的基础研究基金,旨在资助低价诊断技术的研发。如果医生能够迅速辨别感染是病毒性的还是细菌性的,他们就不会为了以防万一而开出抗生素。如果他们知道哪些抗生素能根除某种感染,他们就可以避免开出有部分耐受性的药物,从而限制耐药菌株的进一步选择。
Another of Lord O’Neill’s suggestions is to expand a basic-research fund set up by the British and Chinese governments in order to sponsor the development of cheap diagnostic techniques. If doctors could tell instantaneously whether an infection was viral or bacterial, they would no longer be tempted to administer antibiotics just in case. If they knew which antibiotics would eradicate an infection, they could avoid prescribing a drug that suffers from partial resistance, and thereby limit the further selection of resistant strains.

要将多种政策综合起来毕其功于一役需要政治领导力,但近来全球抗击HIV病毒/艾滋病和疟疾的战斗表明这是可能的。在发布抗生素耐药性的警告上人们已经浪费了太多时间,现在是时候有所行动了。
Combining policies to accomplish many things at once demands political leadership, but recent global campaigns against HIV/AIDS and malaria show that it is possible. Enough time has been wasted issuing warnings about antibiotic resistance. The moment has come to do something about it.

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豪赌翻番Double-crossed

位于伦敦金融区边缘的阿尔德门大街(Aldgate High Street)上的博彩公司吸引了自己的一批冒险者。但马路对面,属于伦敦证券交易所集团(LSE)的伦敦清算所集团(LCH.Clearnet)才是真正玩大赌注的地方。它和其他清算所目前占据了高级金融的核心地位。它们确保每天数万亿美元的衍生品合约得以兑付。并购交易的十年创造了清算所的五大巨兽:伦敦证券交易所(LSE)、德国证券交易所(Deutsche Börse)、芝加哥商品交易所(CME)集团、洲际交易所(ICE)和香港交易及结算所(HKEX)。LSE和德国证券交易所之间的合并计划将会把巨兽的数目减少到四个。
THE bookmaker on Aldgate High Street, on the fringes of London’s financial district, attracts its fair share of risk-takers. But across the road, at the offices of LCH.Clearnet, part of the London Stock Exchange Group (LSE), the really big bets are handled. It and other clearing-houses now occupy a central position in high finance. They ensure that trillions of dollars are paid out on derivatives contracts each day. A decade of dealmaking has created five big beasts of clearing: LSE, Deutsche Börse, CME Group, ICE and HKEX. A planned merger between LSE and the Germans would reduce that to four.

伦敦证券交易所和德国证券交易所的名字是来自于各自的交易所。然而如今各自的清算所——伦敦清算所集团和欧洲期交所清算公司(Eurex Clearing)挣的钱却更多,因为衍生品清算已经成为现代金融体系的中心。
LSE and Deutsche Börse take their names from their respective bourses. But they now make more money from their clearing-houses, LCH.Clearnet and Eurex Clearing. That is because the clearing of derivatives has become central to the modern financial system.

想象一下,比如有两家银行要对冲利率波动,但方向相反。它们签了一份合同,如果利率上升则由一家向另外一家付款,下降则相反。理论上,可能的损失或收益是无限的,因为利率没有上限(也没有下限,大家很快就发现了)。为了确保对方能够支付,双方常常需要一个中间人,即清算所。在收取一定费用之后,清算所会和双方签订两份相互抵消但理论上独立的衍生品合约。只要双方都觉得合算,它们就知道自己的赌注是成立的。
Imagine two banks want to hedge against interest-rate movements, but in opposite directions. They sign a contract that will lead to a payment from one to the other if rates rise, and the reverse if they fall. The potential loss or gain is theoretically unlimited, since there is no ceiling (or floor, as the world is fast learning) to rates. To make sure the other party is able to pay up, the two will often work through a middleman—the clearing-house. For a fee, the clearing-house signs two offsetting but technically separate derivatives contracts with the two parties. As long as both know that it is good for the money, they know their bets are solid.

但是这样一来,清算所就要面临输钱一方不掏腰包的风险。因此,它要求双方提供担保品或保证金,如果有一方违约就可以扣下。这样,只有在违约方欠款超过已付保证金时它才会蒙受损失。
But the clearing-house is now left with the risk that the losing party fails to stump up. So it asks the two parties to post collateral, or margin, which it can keep if one of them defaults. That way the clearing-house only suffers if the defaulting party owes more than the margin it has posted.

从理论上讲,这个体系会降低银行倒闭的传染性,让金融体系更坚挺。2009年,20国集团(G20)这个大型经济体的俱乐部决定简单衍生品合约都应该经过清算所,而不是在双方之间直接结算。这样一来,清算所(也称为中央交易对手)就要处理名义价值高达百万亿美元的交易。
In theory, this system makes bank failures less contagious and the financial system more resilient. In 2009 the G20, a club of big economies, decided that simple derivatives contracts should all be put through clearing-houses, rather than settled directly between the two parties. As a result, clearing-houses, also known as central counterparties, now handle trades with a notional worth of hundreds of trillions of dollars.

清算所拿到的保证金越多就越安全。需要多少保证金是由先进的精算模型计算出来的,并受到严格的监管。自然,交易风险越高,需要的保证金就越多。伦敦清算所集团和欧洲期交所清算公司之间持有的担保品约有1500亿欧元(1700亿美元)(见图)。德国证券交易所指出,其庞大的保证金池有助于确保“全球金融市场的安全性、灵活性和透明度”。但提供更多的担保品对于客户来说十分昂贵。因此,清算所在争抢客户时,会倾向于不去要求太多。
The more margin the clearing-houses take, the safer they are. The required margin is calculated using sophisticated actuarial models, and is heavily regulated. The riskier a trade, naturally, the more margin is needed. LCH.Clearnet and Eurex Clearing hold some €150 billion ($170 billion) in collateral between them (see chart). Deutsche Börse notes that its large margin pool helps to ensure the “safety, resiliency and transparency of global financial markets”. But having to put up more collateral is expensive for customers. Clearing-houses, which compete for customers, therefore have an incentive not to take too much.


银行要赌的当然不只是利率。比如,它们还可以购买和债券收益率 或货币的走势挂钩的衍生品。其中一些价格之间的相对移动是可以预见的,比如利率期货的收益可能会抵消债券价格期货的损失。清算所在计算客户总共要多少担保额时,也会考虑这些相关性,这种技术称为“交叉保证金”或“投资组合保证金”。CME集团宣称其投资组合保证金服务可以将保证金要求下调54-80%。伦敦清算所的“Spider”和欧洲期交所“Prisma”服务也与此类似。
Banks don’t just bet on interest rates, of course. They may also buy derivatives tied to bond yields or currency movements, say. Some of those prices move in relation to one another in predictable ways. Gains on an interest-rate future may offset losses on a bond-price future, for example. Clearing-houses take such correlations into account when setting the overall amount of collateral they demand from their customers, a technique called “cross-margining” or “portfolio margining”. CME Group boasts that its portfolio-margining service can cut margin requirements by 54-80%. LCH.Clearnet’s “Spider” and Eurex’s “Prisma” services do something similar.

所有这一切都在鼓励清算所合并。一些客户使用伦敦清算所集团和欧洲期交所清算公司来做有相关性的赌注。如果这两家合并,他们就可以利用交叉保证金来降低这些客户的总担保额,从而获得竞争优势(至少这两家当初说过,它们会将这种抵消限于完美匹配的衍生品。)
All of which gives clearing-houses an incentive to merge. Some clients use LCH.Clearnet and Eurex Clearing to make correlated wagers. If the two entities combined, they could use cross-margining to reduce the amount of collateral such customers needed, gaining an advantage over the competition. (The pair say that initially, at least, they would limit such offsetting to perfectly matching derivatives.)

不过凡事都有缺点。交易所业务已经高度集中了。不管谁吃掉LSE(ICE还可能半路杀出),五大集团很快就会变成四大。整合后,整个体系中的担保额就很可能会降低。
There is a downside, though. The exchange industry is already highly concentrated. Regardless of who gobbles up LSE (ICE may yet enter the fray), the five big groups will soon become four. As they consolidate, the amount of collateral in the system is likely to be reduced.

这可能会有风险。如果发生危机,不同资产类别之间的相关性有时会被打破。这种不可预知的变化导致香港期货交易所的清算所在1987年的股市崩盘后瘫痪,迫使香港资本市场关闭。这些事件表明,靠相关性削减保证金时必须极度保守。
That could prove risky. Correlations between different asset classes sometimes break down during crises. Such unpredictable movements caused the clearing-house of the Hong Kong Futures Exchange to blow up after the stockmarket crash of 1987, forcing the city’s capital markets to close. Such events suggest that models that rely on correlations to trim margin requirements must be ultraconservative.

没有证据表明哪一家大型清算所担保品不足。它们的模型设计能够承受两个最大的客户同时崩溃。如果出了问题,它们还可以利用庞大的违约基金。监管者并无担忧。但我们仍然有顾虑,因为竞争的逻辑似乎就是,清算所越来越大,担保品却越来越少。
There is no evidence that any big clearing-house holds too little collateral. Their models are designed to withstand the simultaneous failure of their two biggest customers. They can also tap big default funds if things go wrong. Regulators are untroubled. But it is a worry, nonetheless, that the logic of competition seems to be ever-bigger clearing-houses with ever less collateral.

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害死O2O的四大互联网思维

最近几年,O2O曾经是中国互联网创业里最时髦的项目,然而,随着2015年资本寒冬的到来,一批又一批风口上炙手可热的O2O项目纷纷死亡。那么,杀死O2O热潮的,仅仅是因为资本瓶颈吗?最近微信公众号《互联网分析沙龙》就发表了一篇分析文章,为我们介绍了几项把O2O引入误区的互联网思维,正是这些在线上经营里行之有效的的原则,让O2O项目在线下拓展中,遭遇了失败。

第一个,就是用户至上思维。O2O的一大问题在于是过于重视用户的需求,然而却忽略了,用户并不等于顾客,赚钱才是生意的真面目。合理的生意模式应该是平衡顾客和商家之间的利益,说白了就是要让消费者享受便宜,又让商家尝到利润的甜头。但在O2O商业模式里,大部分企业不问原因,向用户需求一边倒。 仔细划分一下,O2O商业模式无非遵循三个思维逻辑:原本线下完成的,转移到线上解决。如支付、点单等;原本到店的,现在改为到家,原本固定的手艺人,变成了流动的服务者,比如洗车,美甲。在传统的线上模式,企业还可以通过大流量,平摊边际成本,实现盈利,可到了线下呢,每多一个顾客,企业成本却在上升,用上门足疗作为例子,你多服务一个足疗用户就得多雇技师,而技师的工作时间又很有限,低价或者补贴都只能是暂时的营销手段,根本不可持续,最后就变为成本驱动,用户越多,赔的越多。所以说,这些边际成本过高的市场,和这些消费能力有限的用户,根本就是伪需求。

第二个:产品至上思维。小米手机的爆红,让雷军的“极致产品”观念,爆红一时,很多O2O创业团队也卯足了劲,不把产品做到“极致”,决不罢休。那问题在于,手机这种实体工业制成品,确实是有硬标准的,能够通过大批量生产,降低成本,但是很多O2O企业,做的是服务、餐饮这样业内没有硬标准的非标产品,导致产品成本严重高于价格,结果呢,补贴一旦取消或价格一旦恢复正常,企业才发现,客户留存率极低,订单数断崖式下滑。说到底,产品是一种情怀,而商品才是一门生意,没人愿意支付的产品,必须死。

第三个害了O2O的互联网思维,是所谓的“羊毛出在猪身上”,到头来呢没人买单。O2O企业在发展线下业务的时候,还是线上的那一套思维,先靠烧钱补贴,把用户群养起来,然后利用用户黏性,升级产品服务,套现。比如一个做推拿按摩的O2O项目,最后希望依托用户粘性,靠做家庭健康顾问来赚钱,乍一看上去可能合乎逻辑,但实际上呢?需要家庭健康顾问的用户肯定要从推拿的用户群体中二次提纯。其次,没有推拿需求的用户也许有健康顾问的需求,而这部分用户要重新获取。第三,推拿技师和健康顾问是两个执行单元,意味着你的运营成本又增加了一条线,再次陷入成本驱动陷阱。第四,用户真有健康顾问的需求,为什么必须找你,而不是去寻找更专业的机构呢?

第四个错误的互联网思维是,只要有入口,就能搭建平台。这些创业者通常忽略了一点,搭建线下平台,复杂程度比线上平台要高上好多倍。举个例子,搭建一个生鲜O2O平台,要涉及到采购、冷链、运输、仓储、销售等多个环节,靠一个网络平台和一套垂直体系根本无法完成,搭建的成本,也摊薄了利润,传统生鲜销售平台虽然环节多,但是每个环节都分摊了食材从产地到消费者餐桌的成本。

那么,在资本和市场回归理性之后,O2O怎么样在困境中突围呢?

第一,要重视用户需求与满足成本之间的需求。O2O最大的价值是降低成本,提高需求端和供给端的效率。如果一款O2O产品供应段的成本过高,比如美甲,按摩上门服务,那么这种商业模式很容易坍塌。

第二,O2O始终要落地线下,所以你必须尊重线下运营的规律属性。比如你做汽车后市场O2O,你就要考虑配件销售和服务等各方面的获利因素。归根结底,要做接地气的商业模式,别把互联网+吹上了天,要适时弱化互联网行业属性。

第三,可以不盈利,但必须要挣钱,一个项目不能永远靠资本烧钱输血维持,所以在项目启动的时候,就要倒逼自己建立一套可以变现的模式,至少做到收支基本平衡。

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